Unidad Multidisciplinaria

Publicaciones recientes del Programa de Población

“Las tendencias demográficas a nivel subnacional en Uruguay: ¿convergencia o divergencia?” A. Blanes, M. Koolhaas, M. Nathan & I. Pardo

El artículo analiza los diferenciales de fecundidad, mortalidad y migración interna entre las diecinueve unidades administrativas mayores (departamentos) del Uruguay, en el período 1996-2015. Para ello se estiman indicadores de nivel y calendario de cada componente demográfico, empleando las estadísticas vitales, los censos nacionales de población, y las estimaciones y proyecciones oficiales de población. Al mismo tiempo, se describen algunos de los supuestos sobre los que descansan las proyecciones de población oficiales y se subraya la necesidad de revisarlos periódicamente a la luz de la evolución de las tendencias demográficas a nivel subnacional. Los resultados obtenidos sugieren que en términos comparativos la población uruguaya no registra un gran nivel de heterogeneidad departamental, aunque ciertos componentes de la dinámica demográfica tienden a ser más heterogéneos (fecundidad) desde el punto de vista territorial que otros (mortalidad).

“The Emergence of Bimodal Fertility Profiles in Latin America” E. Lima, K. Zeman, T, Sobotka, M. Nathan & R. Castro

In contrast to most other low-fertility regions, the fall in period fertility to subreplacement level in Latin America was not accompanied by a sharp decline in fertility rates at young reproductive ages. Reconstructing period fertility rates by age, birth order and level of education, we investigate changes in the age pattern of childbearing in four Latin American countries that experienced a decline in period total fertility rates below the replacement level in the early 2000s—Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica and Uruguay. Our analysis shows that all the four countries display a combination of continuing high rates of childbearing at younger ages with a parallel increase in first birth rates at later reproductive ages. This pattern is also manifested by the emergence of bimodal schedules of first birth rates by age, especially in Chile and Uruguay. We show that this reproductive polarization is more pronounced than the bimodal profiles identified earlier for selected countries of Europe and the United States. We suggest that Latin American low fertility pattern is linked to a high level of income inequality and wide social status differences in the region that go hand in hand with a high rate of unplanned early pregnancies and births, especially among women with lower education.

“Migration responses of immigrants in Spain during the Great Recession” V. Prieto-Rosas, J. Recaño & D. C. Quintero-Lesmes

Do foreigners migrate more when a country faces a major economic crisis? Victoria Prieto, Joaquín Recaño and Doris Cristina Quintero-Lesmes explored the case of Spain from 2006 to 2013 by looking at internal migration and international emigration among the foreign-born population in Spain. Their results suggest that return migration and emigration to a third country increased significantly with respect to internal migration at all stages of the crisis. In contrast, internal migration was more likely than international emigration before the crisis started. Regardless of birth place, having Spanish citizenship was found to be an asset for mobility within Spain and the EU among all foreign-born individuals, while among those without Spanish citizenship the likelihood of internal migration actually decreased. Once the recession was firmly established, their reluctance regarding long-distance internal migration became a permanent feature.